A few weeks back we took a look at NCAA teams that I feel have the strongest shot to go OVER their posted win total in 2014.
Now we will take a look at the teams I believe will go UNDER their posted win total in 2014.
Lets start with the Virginia Cavaliers who are listed at 3.5 wins. I do not see them doubling last years two win total and making it to four wins this year, making them one of my top UNDER plays for the season. They do have quite a few returning starters, the problem is these guys were terrible last year and I don't see them being much better this season. In addition they face a tough conference schedule.
UVA has two wins most likley built into the schedule: home games against Richmond (although Richmond nearly upset NC State last year) and Kent State. After that I have a tough time finding a third win, let alone fourth win in a very difficult conference schedule. Their other out of conference games are against one of the top teams from the PAC 12 in UCLA and I don't see UVA opening the season with a win like they did last year when they stunned BYU. UCLA is well aware of what happened to BYU and they are a better team and won't let it happen to them. The other is against BYU on the road and BYU won't be losing to UVA in back to back seasons.
They get Florida State and Louisville as their ACC crossover games, the top two teams from the Atlantic Division and I expect them to lose both games.
They have road games against Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and Duke, while they could surprise a win one of those it seems highly unlikely.
Their remaining home games are against Pitt, UNC and Miami. Winning of those is possible, two is not. That makes UVA a two or three win team this year as the struggles in Charlottesville continue.
Next look at the Utah Utes. They are listed at 4.5 wins for the season. And while they had five wins last year, the schedule just sets up very poorly for them this year. We can immediately put down the following losses: @ UCLA, @ Stanford, @ Arizona State, and home against Oregon and USC. Also they will most likely lose @ Michigan and @ Oregon State on a Thursday night.
So that is seven likely losses right off the bat, that leaves them needing to run the table on their other five games assuming they don't pull an upset somewhere. They will beat Idaho State to start the year. After that none of the games are guaranteed victories. Fresno State, Washington State, Arizona and @ Colorado could all go either way. It's looking like a 3-9 or 4-8 season at best, keeping them under 4.5 wins.
Other teams under consideration for my top under plays include:
Notre Dame UNDER 8 a very tough schedule for them this year.
Rutgers UNDER 4, they have two wins on the schedule, but should struggle to find 3 additional wins, making 4 a push at worst. It will not be a nice welcome to the Big Ten for them.