The NCAA Playoff Committee has their work cut out for them with just a few big games left to decide which four teams will play for the national title.
A lot of problems were avoided when Florida State held off Florida (who missed two late field goals) and when Alabama overcame an early deficit to beat Auburn in the Iron Bowl. (Could you imagine all the crying if the SEC does not send a team to the playoff?)
If Florida wins the ACC Championship game against Georgia Tech they will make the playoff. Florida State winning is not a lock by any stretch of the imagination though, as the triple option offense that Georgia Tech runs can be very tough to defend. Florida State will need to grab a big lead early to force GT out of their comfort zone, if they can't their is a good chance GT can pull the upset. Their is a reason the linesmakers have only made Florida State a small favorite.
If Oregon beats Arizona in the PAC-12 Championship they will be going to the playoff. It will be a revenge game for Oregon, who lost earlier this season to Arizona. If Arizona were to beat Oregon again they would have a very strong case to go as the top two loss team (assuming Alabama wins)
Speaking of Alabama, if they win the SEC title game against Missouri, they will be in the playoff. They are a two touchdown favorite and Missouri did lose to Indiana (yes you read that right, Indiana) earlier this year. So Alabama should win and be in, but if they were to lose I don't see how they could make it as a two loss team....unless of course
TCU loses to Iowa State (not happening) and Baylor loses to Kansas State (could happen but not likely)
So lets assume Oregon, Florida State and Alabama are in....that leaves the 4th spot to TCU, Baylor or Ohio State.
TCU has the better resume, but they did lose straight up to Baylor blowing a huge 4th quarter lead on the road. However Baylor lost to a very average West VA team, where as TCU was able to go on the road and win in Morgantown. TCU is ahead of them in the rankings right now and should stay their with another impressive win Saturday. Barring a huge win by Baylor and TCU looking very bad against Iowa State (its hard to look bad against Iowa State) I don't see Baylor jumping TCU.
Ohio State has one very bad loss to Virginia Tech that now does not look so bad since VT is bowl eligible thanks to a few wins to close out the season. However, Ohio State lost their second QB of the year to a season ending injury. While BCS computers would be too stupid to factor in an injury to a star player, the selection committee will have to take the injury into account should Ohio State beat Wisconsin (Wisconsin is currently favored to win the game)
I don't see Ohio State jumping any of the 6 teams I have ahead of them right now with a win against Wisconsin, but should Florida State go down and one other team ahead of them gets upset, and Ohio State wins it would be tough to leave Ohio State out.
It will be an interesting final weekend for sure....enjoy the games and get ready for the selection show on Sunday Dec 7.